Washington, please exit westward

Kyrgyzstan has decided to show the Americans the door – Washington is no longer an invited guest at the Manas military base. Instead, Kyrgyzstan has decided to strengthen relations with Russia. We should not be surprised by this. In the scheme of things, Washington could care less about Kyrgyzstan’s security interests or the security concerns of Russia and Central Asia as a whole.

Let’s get real. Why did Bishkek decide to pull the plug on the leasing deal for Manas made right after 9/11? To my mind there are a number of reasons. And let’s remember, the Americans said that they wanted Manas only on a “temporary basis.” Well, temporary started to look like forever. Kyrgyzstan didn’t sign up to that deal.

I submit a number of reasons Kyrgyzstan decided to change course:

1. Kyrgyzstan is in dire straits - its economy is really in trouble and it’s a feeding ground for radical Islamist groups. Kyrgyzstan simply needs outside financial help and Moscow made Bishkek an offer - a deal worth double its current annual GDP. Well, it wasn’t exactly a quid pro quo, but the fact is in international politics states must make trade-offs. Anyway, the Americans never really fitted into Kyrgyzstan – two women were run over by the American military and a Kyrgyz man was shot dead for no reason. Under the current leasing deal, American military personnel have legal immunity from Kyrgyz law.

2. Kyrgyzstan no longer wants to be a front line state in America’s failed “war on terrorism.” The Afghanistan mess won’t be cleaned up for a long while and Bishkek no longer wants to be closely associated with American war efforts.

3. Kyrgyzstan sees that the US may or may not change policy toward Iran. Again, it doesn’t want to be seen taking sides just for the meager rental fees it earns from Manas. Leasing Manas was to earn some easy cash – not to sell Kyrgyzstan’s soul to Washington for the rest of time.

4. Kyrgyzstan is simply too small, fragile and weak to ignore the geopolitical realities. It wants to be part of the neighborhood and needs to be in step with others in the region. And Manas was a sore point with the Russians and Chinese. Manas afforded the US military the ability to “observe” military movements of both Russia’s and China’s military operations.

5. Kyrgyzstan is deeply worried about what is happening in Afghanistan - and so is Russia. Asking the Americans to leave Manas strengthens Russia’s position vis-à-vis Washington.

6. I don’t think that Bishkek’s decision is an outright snub to Washington. Essentially the message is – “We can help, but as a partner with Moscow - first let Moscow lead and we will follow.”

Hopefully, Washington and Brussels will understand Bishkek’s reasoning. NATO is in trouble in Afghanistan up to its eyeballs. It needs to turn to Moscow to elaborate a new policy towards Afghanistan. As I have repeatedly written, the ball is solidly in Washington’s court. Kyrgyzstan has decided to drop out of the “great game.”