The EU blinked first

Russia and the EU have signed a new agreement on ensuring security in the South Caucasus. It’s a deal all parties involved can (and should) embrace. The agreement is a major step towards resolving the “Georgian crisis” that neither Russia nor the European Union wanted. And with one exception, the EU accepted all of Russia’s demands.

Prior to today’s agreement, the EU showed itself to be in restive mood. Over the weekend, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner talked tough and implied that Russia would face consequences if the EU wasn’t listened to. In the end, it was the EU listening closely to what Russia had to say.

Russia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia had long wanted the Tbilisi regime to sign a pact on the none-use of force. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili always refused, claiming he would never use force against his “own people.” The new agreement demands that Saakashvili sign such a document in the presence of the EU. Now the EU will make sure Saakashvili keeps his word. I find it simply a disgrace that we had to go through all of this because of one man’s blind and violent ambitions.

Russia has been strongly criticised for not removing its peacekeepers from Georgia proper. With security conditions in place on the ground and EU guarantees to sponsor monitors, Russia completes this part of the six-point ceasefire agreement. The media won’t have this issue to chew on any more.

Within days, 200 European Union observers will start deploying in areas near South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Ten days after their arrival, Russian forces will complete their withdrawal. Again, the EU will demand that the Georgian side keeps the peace. The Georgians call the Russian military presence in their country occupation. Now they can complain about the occupation of EU monitors! This is always what the Kremlin had in mind.

On top of this, it was agreed that all Russian-manned observation posts along the line between the Black Sea port city of Poti and Sekaki to the north-east will be vacated within seven days. With this act, Russia will leave Georgia though remain in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The status both regions will be discussed as part of an international conference next month in Geneva. I suspect most of the discussion will concern refugees. As far as Russia is concerned, the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has already been decided. Tbilisi has lost – forever – the moral right to rule over them.

The EU won’t say it, but it has essentially recognised that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are no longer and will never again be part of Georgia. This is a victory for the people of both and a vindication of Russian patience throughout the crisis.

The new agreement accepts the political realities on the ground. Saakashvili used force to recapture South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Now the EU will make sure – through peaceful means – that Tbilisi never resorts to violence again. Saakashvili has only himself to blame for destroying the territoral intergrity of his own country.

The EU chose pragmatism. And Russia has never asked for the unreasonable. I am sure the commentariat won’t see it this way. And I am curious about how the US will respond.